Ottawa COVID-19 Projections
Last updated 28 April, 2020, 11:27:09 EST.
Last updated on 28 April, 2020, 11:27:09 EST.
La version française de ce contenu sera publiée sous peu.
Current of forecast hospital use for COVID-19 patients in the Ottawa area. Created by the team behind ProjectBigLife.ca at the Ottawa Hospital and the University of Ottawa with input and data from Ottawa Public Health.
Dashboard
Data to Apr 27, 2020
Current
34 confirmed COVID-19 patients in hospital.
Including: 27 acute care patients. 7 ICU patients.
58% physical distance effectiveness (approximate), resulting in a 99% reduction in peak hospitalizations from no prevention & control.
Short-range forecast
Fewer patients in hospital the this week, reflecting a current halving time of 143.5 days (daily growth of -0.48%).
Long-range forecast
43 to 405 peak patients in hospital between Apr 2020 & Oct 2020.
Observed Hospital census
Hospital census halving time of 143.5 days translates to current physical distancing effectiveness of approximately 58%.
Hospital census is the count of patients in all Ottawa hospitals at midnight on the previous day.
Doubling time refers to the time it takes for the number of hospitalized patients to double in number.
Halving time is the time it takes to halve the number of hospitalized patients. Doubling/halving time was calculated for each 7 day period (Mon-Sun).
Peak hospitalization projections
The forecast of 40 patients in hospital in Apr 2020 is based on the previous weeks’ physical distancing effectiveness of 58%. 58% physical distancing effectiveness will result in an estimated 99% reduction in peak hospitalizations compared to no prevention & control.
Physical distancing is the reduction in close contact between people.
Physical distancing effectiveness is the amount that people without COVID-19 stay away from people who are infectious with COVID-19, compared to the time before COVID-19 control measures.
A further explanation of effective physical distancing will be added to the More page soon.
Acute care hospitalization projections
Census projections
Daily projections
ICU projections
Census projections
Daily projections
Ventilator projections
Census projections
Daily projections
Death projections
Death projections were made using existing data from Ottawa Public Health and probability data from Tuite, Fisman, et al. These projections assume all hospital deaths are in the ICU. Model parameters are here.
Only deaths for hospital patients are included in the projections. Long-term care (LTC, also known as nursing homes) and retirement homes are not included in the projections. As of April 3, 2020, 40 to 60% of COVID-19 related deaths occurred in residents of LTC or retirement homes. Many residents in LTC and retirement homes are in their last years of life and have advanced directives saying they (the resident) do not want advanced life support or transfer to the hospital if they have a life threatening illness. The observed deaths, however, include deaths that occurred outside the hospital in either LTC facilities or the community.